Is the score a probability?

No. It's an evidence grade: how much of the answer was verified in opened sources versus inferred. Treat it as an audit label, not a calibrated likelihood.

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The AI confidence score, explained properly

2026-08-08 · 5 min read

A confidence number is worthless unless the scale is defined and the basis is stated. Here's the definition, in full.

The bands

100 — directly verified in a primary source that was opened during the answer.

80–99 — corroborated by strong sources.

50–79 — partial support, or some inference on top of evidence.

1–49 — largely reasoning, not verifying. The answer must open with the admission.

0 — no basis at all.

Caps and floors

Any answer under 50 sets the knowledge_gap flag. Any contested figure with no rankable source caps the score at 70, however confident the prose sounds — the number is not allowed to outrun the evidence.

Every score ships with a one-line basis and a "what would change this" statement. If those two lines are weak, distrust the number, including ours.

FAQ

Is the score a probability?: No. It's an evidence grade: how much of the answer was verified in opened sources versus inferred. Treat it as an audit label, not a calibrated likelihood.

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